Foreign media said that recent polls show that 60% of voters want the White House to change hands. But at least three models predict that Trump will win re-election in 2020.
According to the US Forbes biweekly website reported on May 27, in the summer of 2019, the United States is not lacking superhero movies, but how can the Democrats find their superheroes?
Foreign media: How big is Trump's chance of winning again?
In the Quinnipiac poll released last week, in addition to former Vice President Joe Biden and Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pitt Butigig, it was found that the support ratings of other Democratic candidates were lower than the opposition. rate.
Biden's opponents (49% support, 39% opposition) are: Bernie Sanders (41% vs. 48%), Elizabeth Warren (32% vs. 41%), Kamala Harris ( 27% vs. 30%), Beto Orok (20% vs. 32%), Corey Booker (23% vs. 31%), Bai Sihao (8% vs. 45%).
The report said that Trump is also in this poll. His support and opposition rates were 38% and 57%, respectively, compared with 41% vs. 55% in the first week of May.
This means that one year later, when the Democrats have either confirmed their presidential candidates or are in the final stages of choosing a presidential candidate, you may see that the support rate of the two-party flag bearers is lower than the opposition rate.
In the economic field, 52% of respondents said that their current life is better than 2016 (only 21% said their life is worse than 2016). 71% of US voters rated the economy as excellent (22%) or “good” (49%). The optimistic figure of the last poll was 18 years ago.
However, if Trump's name is added, the situation is not good for the White House. Only 48% of voters voted for Trump's approach to the economy; 40% voted for his China policy (Trump's support for Iran on the 37%); only 37% voted for Trump The way of foreign policy.
The report believes that if the president can find common ground with the Chinese on trade issues, or the tension in the Persian Gulf can be alleviated, these figures may change.
It’s these numbers that Trump’s re-elected think tank members should worry about: 54% of Americans say they will “yes” not vote for him next year. This includes 54% of independent voters (and 94% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans).
The report said, but equally disturbing is the result of the Monmouth poll released last week: only 37% of voters think that Trump should be re-elected, while 60% of voters want the White House to change hands; only 29% of respondents think The United States is on the right path.
63% of respondents believe that the United States is on the wrong path.
Despite these polls, some electoral predictors still predict that Trump will win re-election. This includes the model of Yale University economist Ray Fell, who had predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election.
According to the British "Independent" website reported on May 29, at least three models predict that Trump will win re-election in 2020. This forecast is based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages.
According to the report, these models are included in a recent column written by Steven Ratner. Ratner was a consultant to the Treasury during Obama’s presidency.
Ratner said that one of the most reliable models is the model created by Yale University professor Fair. Fair considers factors such as incumbency and GDP growth to consider who might win the presidency.
According to the report, the model successfully predicted Obama's victory in 2008, and his vote for universal suffrage was less than 1 percentage point from the predicted value. However, the model has some flaws that do not take into account some of the unique features that Trump himself has shown. In other words, the model does not predict that Trump will lose 3 million popular votes in 2016. This may indicate that the model does not fully take into account the factors that the American public does not like Trump.
In addition to Fair's model, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi also analyzed several models and found that Trump is likely to win in 2020.
An analysis of the electoral college system by Donald Luskin of the macro trend analysis firm also found that Trump had a great chance of winning re-election.
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